West Ham United are faced with the possibility of missing out on European football next season, trailing unstoppable Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 after the first leg of their Europa League quarter-final tie, also failing to hit a vein of consistency in the Premier League.
The Hammers have been in and around contention for continental qualification for most of the campaign but after falling to defeat against Fulham at the London Stadium on Sunday, David Moyes resting several players ahead of the return fixture against Leverkusen, they have fallen to eighth in the standings.
While there is plenty of time to recover, Newcastle United thrashed Tottenham Hotspur to take sixth place, while Manchester United's poor form has not been poor enough to see them fall below the Hammers – Chelsea are also just one point behind in ninth, holding two games in hand.
It's going to be a thrilling if nail-biting finale and West Ham will need to bring about their richest performance level to ensure that a promising season does not fizz out.
While the squad triumphed in the Europa Conference League last season, the cracks of the domestic efforts were papered over following glory on the continent, and with Declan Rice sold to Arsenal in the summer, it's remarkable that United are fighting at the top end of the division after finishing 14th.
There are still issues, with one of the most concerning the defensive struggles that have seen the likes of Nayef Aguerd plummet.
The fee West Ham paid for Nayef Aguerd
Aguerd arrived with a weight of expectation, signing from French side Rennes in a £30m transfer in 2022 to improve a backline that had been so impressive under Moyes' tutelage for the past couple of seasons.
The Scottish manager hailed Aguerd's "attitude and character" following his signing, with his displays in Ligue 1 the campaign prior establishing him as one of the division's most exciting defenders.
He was awarded third place in West Ham's Player of the Season honours for the 2022/23 campaign, finishing behind Rice and Said Benrahma, having overcome an ankle injury suffered in pre-season to play 30 times in all competitions and win the Conference League.
He is endowed with aerial dominance and an aggressive approach that makes him a valuable option for his side, even heralded as a "superstar" by journalist Mohamed Salad.
That said, journalist Zach Lowy mused the year before his transfer to English shores that he had "had a good start to last season but still far too raw as a passer & often coughs up possession in dangerous areas", proving to be flaws that niggle at his displays to this day.
Nayef Aguerd's season in numbers
While Aguerd displayed plenty of promise throughout his first season at West Ham, he has failed to evoke the awe of supporters despite the club seeing a pleasing upswing on the domestic front.
The £50k-per-week defender has completed 21 Premier League fixtures this term but has only started twice across the past eight opportunities, as per Sofascore, having only completed 80% of his passes, made two errors leading to a shot and committing one penalty.
As such, it would appear that West Ham are willing to leave their Moroccan centre-half leave this summer, with Football Insider revealing that he could be one of the high-profile players the club ships on this summer.
Aguerd is still a talented centre-back but his error-streaked season has seen Moyes lose faith in his presence, as evidenced by his two Premier League starts from eight games – both of which, it must be said, left much to be desired, with West Ham drawing 2-2 against Burnley in one and slumping to defeat against Fulham, last time out, in the other.
With all this occurring, it's only natural that his market valuation would take a slide…
Nayef Aguerd's market value in 2024
According to Football Transfers' player valuation model, Aguerd is actually worth just £11m at present, a by-product of his seasonal slump and an illustration of the flaws that have been found out in the Premier League.
This depreciation actually marks a 63% decrease in valuation since arriving, and given that he has drifted in and out of Moyes' starting line-up in recent months, it's not looking to be the greatest of investments that the club have made.
Nayef Aguerd
£11m
£30m
Kurt Zouma
£14m
£30m
Kalvin Phillips
£13m
n/a
Konstantinos Mavropanos
£12m
£19m
Maxwel Cornet
£9m
£17.5m
It's worth noting that if Moyes – who is out of contract at West Ham this summer – does not renew his terms, the board may well seek to secure the services of a manager canvassing a more progressive, forward-flowing style of play, and given Aguerd's issues in regard to his ball-playing, this might not prove fruitful for him.
An effective attacking outlet and a robust challenger, Aguerd ranks among the top 9% of centre-backs across Europe's top five leagues over the past year for goals scored, the top 19% for shots taken and the top 11% for blocks per 90, as per FBref.
However, he also ranks among the bottom 13% for pass completion, the bottom 38% for progressive passes and the bottom 36% for tackles per 90, highlighting the deficiencies that have alienated him from a regular starting berth over the past several months.
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Having struggled to impress this season, it's no wonder that his market value has plummeted £19m since joining his Premier League club less than two years ago.
He's got enough in his locker to produce a good performance in a West Ham shirt, but, ultimately, Aguerd is facing a meek departure from the club, who are unlikely to recuperate a figure nearing the initial outlay for his signature.